Looking Ahead to 2024 Election in the House and Senate
In March, voters in eight states – Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, Texas, Mississippi, Illinois and Ohio – cast their primary ballots, marking the first set of congressional primary elections of the year. Several results may affect whether a political party may gain or retain control of a particular chamber in the next Congress.
In Ohio, Republican candidate Bernie Moreno, the preferred candidate of both Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and former President Donald Trump, prevailed in a contentious Senate primary with over 50 percent of the vote. Boosted by a late rally with Trump, Moreno defeated his opponents state Sen. Matt Dolan (33 percent) and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (17 percent). He will now challenge Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in November. Moreno received Trump's endorsement and campaigned on a populist agenda, criticizing other Republicans for not being sufficiently loyal to Trump. A Democratic super PAC also spent heavily supporting Moreno in the Republican primary, indicating confidence in polling that showed Sen. Brown leading Moreno compared to a potential matchup against the more moderate Dolan. Dolan, who hails from a leading Ohio family, had the support of much of Ohio’s traditional Republican establishment class including Gov. Mike DeWine, former Gov. John Kasich, and former Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio). Analysts expect this Senate race to be highly competitive and have labeled it a "toss-up."
In the March primaries, all but one House incumbent fended off potential challengers. In Alabama’s 1st congressional district featuring a rare incumbent-vs.-incumbent Republican primary, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.-2) defeated Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.-1). This was prompted by a Supreme Court decision that forced Alabama to adopt redrawn congressional districts and create a second Black opportunity district. Rep. Moore, who labeled himself the clear MAGA choice, chose to challenge his fellow incumbent because Democrats are favored to win the newly drawn 2nd congressional district. Rep. Carl becomes the first House lawmaker seeking reelection to lose their primary in the 2024 election cycle.
Some of these primary races for incumbents proved closer than others. The closest of these was in Illinois’s 12th congressional district, where five-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.-12) successfully defended his seat against a challenge from far-right farmer turned-politician Darren Bailey by a margin of less than 3,000 votes. Rep. Bost, who serves as the Chairman of the House Committee on Veterans Affairs, overcame this primary challenge with the help of an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Members of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, such as Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.-1) and Mary Miller (R-Ill.-15), waded into the primary fight in support of Bailey, largely out of personal animus towards Rep. Bost, and disregarded the customary protocol of not challenging fellow House GOP incumbents. NAAPAC proudly provided full support to Rep. Bost in his primary reelection efforts, given his committee seniority and positive working relationship with our industry.
As an update to races that NAA was engaged in involving NAA members, in Texas’s 12th congressional district, state Rep. and NAA member Craig Goldman secured the most support at 44% and will head to a May 28 runoff against Fort Worth businessman John O’Shea, who received 26.4%. In addition to receiving full financial backing from NAAPAC, Goldman garnered endorsements from prominent Republicans, including Gov. Greg Abbott, former Gov. Rick Perry, and Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker. O’Shea is running on an America First platform and is endorsed by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. NAAPAC is already providing the maximum possible assistance to support Goldman’s campaign, and we kindly ask you to consider aiding your fellow NAA member to finish strong in the final weeks of his primary runoff. If you would like to personally contribute to Goldman’s campaign, you can do so by using the NAA’s conduit site. Please reach out to Rob Johnson for instructions.
Unfortunately, state Rep. John Bradford in North Carolina's 8th congressional district and Charles Tassell in Ohio's 2nd congressional district were unsuccessful in their respective Republican primary elections. Despite running strong races, both of these NAA members were up against multiple, well-funded candidates and were unable to prevail. We are grateful for their investment, their willingness to add their voice to the debate and for being part of the political process. We certainly hope they remain involved going forward.
This month, Pennsylvania is the only state that will have primary elections for congressional races. We will provide a more thorough update towards the end of the month as we look ahead to upcoming primary elections in May and June. If you would like us to cover a particular upcoming race or share how NAAPAC is playing a role in your area, please reach out to Rob Johnson.