Apartment completions are on pace to set a new record. According to RentCafe, 518,108 rental units will be completed by the end of 2024, marking the first time construction completions will surpass half a million units. However, nearly 60% of the new completions in 2024 are in the top 20 markets.
By 2028, it's expected that 2 million units will be completed. Completions are expected to finish the year 9% higher than 2023 and 30% above 2022. Completions are forecasted to decline by 15% in 2025; continue to decline through 2027; and increase to nearly 400,000 in 2028.
The Sun Belt is home to much of the growth with Dallas, Austin, Texas, Phoenix, Atlanta and Houston, respectively, sliding in behind New York City. Dallas was just three units shy of tying New York for the top spot (32,935 vs. 32,932). Diving deeper, Brooklyn was the top sub-market within New York with more than 9,300 units—6,400 units more than Manhattan. Dallas is second to New York in apartments expected by 2028, and it had the most completions—ahead of New York—between 2019 and 2023.