Looking Ahead to 2024 Election in the House and Senate
In last month's NAAPAC Insider, we highlighted that control of the House seems to be up for grabs, with the outcome likely to follow the results of the presidential election. In the past six presidential cycles, the winning party has gained or retained control of the House, except for 2012, when Republicans maintained their majority from 2010. President Biden’s approval rating has consistently remained just below 40 percent, according to the most recent data from RealClearPolitics. However, President Biden’s utterly dismal performance in the first presidential debate, held just this week, now threatens to upend the race and have negative reverberating effects down-ballot. Time will tell what changes will be made by Democrats to course correct.
The Senate, on the other hand, presents a different scenario. Democrats currently hold a one-seat Senate majority but face an uphill battle in their fight to keep control. They've largely conceded West Virginia when Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) decided not to run for re-election and must defend every other seat to reach 50-50, relying on the Vice President's tie-breaking vote. The seven most competitive Senate seats are Democratic-held in swing and red states like Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, and Ohio. Except for Montana, Democratic candidates in these states are leading in recent polls against their Republican opponents and are outperforming President Biden.
Republicans have seen improvement in candidate recruitment, avoiding missteps from the 2022 election cycle. Recently, top GOP candidate recruits like Sam Brown of Nevada and Tim Sheehey of Montana secured their Republican candidate nominations. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has broadened its Senate target map to include Maryland by recruiting popular two-term former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who is demonstrating his independence by breaking with his party on certain issues. Hogan will be up against Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. Alsobrooks is responsible for several onerous rent control and regulatory measures that will likely stifle multifamily housing development in Prince George’s County. The only remotely competitive GOP Senate seats up this November are in Florida and Texas.
Former President Trump's influence remains strong in GOP primaries, but four recent races have shown some divergence. In Utah, Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah-3), a longstanding industry ally, prevailed against Trump-endorsed Riverton Mayor Trent Stagg. He will succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who he aligns more closely with than the MAGA movement. In New Jersey, GOP voters chose Curtis Bashaw, a real estate developer and Chris Christie-backed candidate, over Trump-endorsed Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner. While Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.-3) won the Democratic primary unopposed, this New Jersey race may become a sleeper and emerge as one to watch given its unique dynamic. Incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who has been charged again in a federal corruption indictment, filed to run for reelection as an independent and may splinter the Democratic vote. In two House races, Jeff Crank and Sherri Biggs, in Colorado’s 5th and South Carolina’s 3rd district respectively, defeated Trump-backed candidates and will represent the Republican Party on the November ballot.
The streak of primary wins among congressional incumbents this election cycle came to an end with the defeat of Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.-16) and Bob Good (R-Va.-5). In New York, Rep. Bowman lost to Westchester Executive George Latimer, a more moderate, mainstream Democrat, by more than 17 percent. In Virginia's 5th district, Rep. Bob Good, chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, seems to have been defeated by Trump-endorsed state Sen. John McGuire. While Rep. Good has requested a recount, he is trailing by approximately 400 votes and his options are narrowing.
We plan on providing additional primary analysis in July’s NAPAC Insider edition as we look ahead at remaining primary elections and some key races where NAAPAC is involved. If you would like us to cover a particular upcoming race or share how NAAPAC is playing a role in your area, please reach out to Rob Johnson.