Looking Ahead to 2024 Election in the House and Senate
As the November election is just over six months away, it is worth looking at the political landscape impacting the House. The generic ballot is a useful tool for predicting the House popular vote, although it has been more accurate in cycles without presidential races atop the ballot. Republicans have been leading in generic polling averages since November 2023, but in mid-April 2024, Democrats regained some momentum and are now maintaining an average lead of 1.2%, according to RealClearPolitics.
The battle for control of the House will largely be decided by 30 competitive seats, split roughly even between Republican and Democratic-held districts. Democrats have maintained a steady financial advantage in most of these key races and are continuing to outpace Republicans in fundraising at the party committee level. Republicans are having to defend 16 congressional districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020. Since the last midterm, five states have issued new congressional maps due to court challenges, with Republicans and Democrats largely neutralizing each other’s advantage. Republicans picked up three new seats in North Carolina, but those gains were offset by the creation of Democratic-leaning seats in Alabama, New York and Louisiana, where the map could change depending on the outcome of ongoing litigation. Democrats on paper have an easier path to 218, as there are only five Democrats representing districts that went for former President Trump in 2020.
The result of the presidential race will have a considerable impact on the upcoming November elections in the House. In the previous six presidential elections, the party that emerged victorious in the White House also won or maintained a majority in the House of Representatives in five cases. The only exception was in 2012, when the Republicans held onto their majority due to their significant gains in the 2010 midterms, which were the largest midterm gains by an opposition party since the Great Depression. The battle for the House is likely to be very close through election day, although whoever wins control will need to be prepared to govern with a slim majority.
Excluding a handful of runoff elections, Pennsylvania was the only state that held primary elections in April for federal lawmakers. In Pennsylvania's 1st district, Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.-1) defeated anti-abortion activist Mark Houck with 60.6% of the votes, while Houck received 38%. Rep. Fitzpatrick, who co-chairs the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, faced criticism from the far right for his moderate views. NAAPAC is proud to strongly support Rep. Fitzpatrick in his reelection. In the general election, he will compete against Democrat candidate Ashley Ehasz in a rematch from last cycle. In 2022, Rep. Fitzpatrick defeated Ehasz by around 10%.
Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race is expected to be highly contentious and could be pivotal in deciding control of the chamber. Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Republican challenger Dave McCormick both won uncontested primary contests and will now enter a grueling general election campaign pace.
In Alabama's 2nd congressional district, a Democratic former Justice Department official Shomari Figures and a first-time Republican candidate Caroleene Dobson emerged as the winners of the April 16 primary runoff and will be their respective party candidates in the general election. The creation of this district was mandated by a federal court, which required Alabama to implement a congressional map that included a second predominantly Black district. Democrats see this newly-created district as a potential opportunity to gain a seat this November.
NAAPAC is continuing to monitor the status of other upcoming primaries and run-off elections taking place in May. Notably, in Nebraska's 2nd district, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.-2) is facing a primary challenge on May 14 from Republican businessman Dan Frei, who is running to Bacon's right and has support from the GOP’s populist wing. While Rep. Bacon has secured endorsements from much of the Nebraskan GOP establishment and will likely prevail, this congressional district is expected to be hotly contested in November’s general election. Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas of Omaha is running again in a rematch from 2022. Additionally, Nebraska’s 2nd is bound to receive plenty of attention at the national level, as the district’s one electoral vote went to President Biden in 2020 and will be a key target again this November. NAAPAC is strongly supportive of Rep. Bacon’s reelection efforts, as we appreciate his pragmatism and continued effectiveness in Congress.
In the lead-up to the May 28 runoff election for Texas's 12th congressional district, state Rep. Craig Goldman - a member of the National Apartment Association and Fort Worth Apartment Association - has continued to gain solid support. Goldman has secured the endorsements of numerous state lawmakers, including Governor Greg Abbott, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, former U.S. Senator Phil Gramm, Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker, and retiring Rep. Kay Granger, whose seat he is seeking to fill. On the other hand, Fort Worth businessman John O'Shea, who is backed by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, has criticized Goldman as being part of the "establishment swamp" and for taking stances that he deems to be out of line with Trump's "America First" platform. O'Shea has recently come under fire for falsely claiming endorsements and support from organizations like the Texas Association of Builders, among others. NAAPAC is already providing maximum assistance to support Goldman's campaign. We kindly ask for your aid to help him finish strong in the final weeks of his primary campaign. If you would like to personally contribute to Goldman’s campaign and help ensure we elect an NAA member to Congress, you can do so by using the NAA’s conduit site. Please reach out to Rob Johnson for instructions.
In Texas’s 23rd congressional district, Rep. Tony Gonzalez (R-Tex.-23) is in a runoff fight against Brandon Herrera, a far-right gun activist and social media influencer. Rep. Gonzalez has received strong financial support from Speaker Mike Johnson and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio-4), while Herrera has received the backing of House Freedom Caucus members like Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.-1) and Bob Good (R-Va.-5). NAAPAC is proud to be supporting Rep. Gonzalez in this primary, given his positive efforts in support of our industry and his good working relationship with the San Antonio Apartment Association.
We anticipate providing additional primary analysis towards the end of the month as we look ahead to June's upcoming primary elections. If you would like us to cover a particular upcoming race or share how NAAPAC is playing a role in your area, please reach out to Rob Johnson.