Looking Ahead to 2024 Election in the House and Senate
Due to the latest vacancies caused by early retirements, Republicans enter 2024 with a historically slim majority of two votes in the House. The field of competitive seats in the House has shrunk: our friends at Inside Elections say there are just 12 toss-up seats, while there are another 16 seats that tilt Republican or Democratic. It is worth noting that New York has yet to finalize its maps, plus Florida and Louisiana may add minority-majority seats favoring Democrats. All in all, Democrats are well-positioned to make a serious bid to win the House in 2024.
Over in the Senate, Republicans are still favored to retake the majority. Democratic incumbents are up for reelection in red states like Montana and Ohio. Arizona remains a mystery for political prognosticators. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who’s been involved in the border negotiations, hasn’t said whether she’s running again. West Virginia is already a certain pickup for the GOP with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) Republicans, however, have been dogged in previous cycles by poor candidate recruitment in pivotal races and acrimonious primary fights. The Senate GOP, under NRSC chair Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), is hoping to avoid these past mistakes by taking a more active role in the primary process and getting behind preferred candidates. A wildcard continues to be how certain presidential nominees will affect down-ballot races, so we will actively monitor these developments as they play out.
As a number of congressional primary elections are slated to start in March, we will begin by previewing in our February edition some key races to watch, including three open House seats where NAA members are running. For questions about key races in your area and NAAPAC’s involvement, please contact Jim Wilson or Rob Johnson.